Weather, fire, and density drive population dynamics of small mammals in the Brazilian Cerrado

Abstract

Abstract Understanding the relative importance of exogenous and endogenous factors in natural population dynamics has been a central question in ecology. However, until recently few studies used long-term data to assess factors driving small mammal abundance in Neotropical savannas. We used a 9-year data set, based on monthly captures, to understand the population dynamics of two scansorial small mammals inhabiting the Brazilian Cerrado: the semelparous gracile mouse opossum (Gracilinanus agilis), and the iteroparous long-tailed climbing mouse (Rhipidomys macrurus), the two most abundant species at Panga Ecological Station (Uberlândia/MG). We tested the impact of two fires that occurred in 2014 and 2017 on the abundance of both populations. Also, we used Royama’s framework to identify the role of the endogenous system (intraspecific competition) and exogenous factors (annual rainfall, days with minimum and maximum temperatures, annual minimum Normalized Difference Vegetation Index [NDVI], and Southern Oscillation Index) in population dynamics. Extensive and severe fires had a lasting, negative impact on the studied populations, probably by reducing the carrying capacity of the environment. Both populations were influenced by negative first-order feedback, indicating density-dependent effects. Moreover, the endogenous system and the annual minimum NDVI operated as vertical effects determining G. agilis dynamics, while the R. macrurus population was governed by the vertical effects of 1-year lagged rainfall. Our results support the contention that small mammal population fluctuations are driven by the interaction between endogenous (density-dependent) and exogenous factors, which in this study were mainly associated with habitat complexity. Despite ecological similarities shared by both species, their response and recovery time to disturbances and environmental variables varied, probably due to their contrasting life histories. Hence, we emphasize the need to consider species life histories to understand the responses of small mammals to extreme events and reinforce the importance of long-term studies that evaluate the combined effects of endogenous and exogenous variables on population dynamics.