Effect of unequal vaccination coverage and migration on long-term pathogen evolution in a metapopulation

Abstract

Abstract Worldwide inequalities in vaccine availability are expected to affect the spread and spatial distribution of infectious diseases. It is unclear, however, how spatial variation in vaccination coverage can affect the long-term evolution of pathogens. Here we use an analytical model and numerical simulations to analyse the influence of different imperfect vaccines on the potential evolution of pathogen virulence in a two-population model where vaccination coverage varies between populations. We focus on four vaccines, with different modes of action on the life cycle of a pathogen infecting two host populations coupled by migration. We show that, for vaccines that reduce infection risk or transmissibility, spatial heterogeneity has little effect on pathogen prevalence and host mortality, and no effect on the evolution of pathogen virulence. In contrast, vaccines that reduce pathogen virulence can select for more virulent pathogens and may lead to the coexistence of different pathogen strains, depending on the degree of spatial heterogeneity in the metapopulation. This heterogeneity is driven by two parameters: pathogen migration and the difference in the vaccination rate between the two populations. We show that vaccines that only reduce pathogen virulence select mainly for a single pathogen strategy in the long term, while vaccines that reduce both transmission and virulence can favor the coexistence of two pathogen genotypes. We discuss the implications and potential extensions of our analysis.