Development and validation of a novel risk score to predict overall survival following surgical clearance of bilobar colorectal liver metastases

Abstract

Abstract Background Bilobar liver metastases from colorectal cancer pose a challenge for obtaining a satisfactory oncological outcome with an adequate future liver remnant. This study aimed to assess the clinical and pathological determinants of overall survival and recurrence-free survival among patients undergoing surgical clearance of bilobar liver metastases from colorectal cancer. Methods A retrospective international multicentre study of patients who underwent surgery for bilobar liver metastases from colorectal cancer between January 2012 and December 2018 was conducted. Overall survival and recurrence-free survival at 1, 2, 3 and 5 years after surgery were the primary outcomes evaluated. The secondary outcomes were duration of postoperative hospital stay, and 90-day major morbidity and mortality rates. A prognostic nomogram was developed using covariates selected from a Cox proportional hazards regression model, and internally validated using a 3:1 random partition into derivation and validation cohorts. Results A total of 1236 patients were included from 70 centres. The majority (88 per cent) of the patients had synchronous liver metastases. Overall survival at 1, 2, 3 and 5 years was 86.4 per cent, 67.5 per cent, 52.6 per cent and 33.8 per cent, and the recurrence-free survival rates were 48.7 per cent, 26.6 per cent, 19.2 per cent and 10.5 per cent respectively. A total of 25 per cent of patients had recurrent disease within 6 months. Margin positivity and progressive disease at liver resection were poor prognostic factors, while adjuvant chemotherapy in margin-positive resections improved overall survival. The bilobar liver metastases from colorectal cancer-overall survival nomogram was developed from the derivation cohort based on pre- and postoperative factors. The nomogram’s ability to forecast overall survival at 1, 2, 3 and 5 years was subsequently validated on the validation cohort and showed high accuracy (overall C-index = 0.742). Conclusion Despite the high recurrence rates, overall survival of patients undergoing surgical resection for bilobar liver metastases from colorectal cancer is encouraging. The novel bilobar liver metastases from colorectal cancer-overall survival nomogram helps in counselling and informed decision-making of patients planned for treatment of bilobar liver metastases from colorectal cancer.