Comparative performances of nomograms and conditional survival after resection of adrenocortical cancer

Abstract

Abstract Background Adrenocortical carcinomas (ACCs) carry a poor prognosis. This study assessed the comparative performance of existing nomograms in estimating the likelihood of survival, along with the value of conditional survival estimation for patients who had already survived for a given length of time after surgery. Methods This was an observational study based on a prospectively developed departmental database that recorded details of patients operated for ACC in a UK tertiary referral centre. Results Of 74 patients with ACC managed between 2001 and 2020, data were analysed for 62 patients (32 women and 30 men, mean(s.d.) age 51(17) years) who had primary surgical treatment in this unit. Laparoscopic (9) or open adrenalectomies (53) were performed alone or in association with a multivisceral resection (27). Most of the tumours were left-sided (40) and 18 were cortisol-secreting. Overall median survival was 33 months, with 1-, 3- and 5-year survival rates of 79, 49, and 41 per cent respectively. Age over 55 years, higher European Network for Study of Adrenal Tumours stage, and cortisol secretion were associated with poorer survival in univariable analyses. Four published nomograms suggested widely variable outcomes that did not correlate with observed overall survival at 1, 3 or 5 years after operation. The 3-year conditional survival at 2 years (probability of surviving to postoperative year 5) was 65 per cent, compared with a 5-year actuarial survival rate of 41 per cent calculated from the time of surgery. Conclusion Survival of patients with ACC correlates with clinical parameters but not with published nomograms. Conditional survival might provide a more accurate estimate of survival for patients who have already survived for a certain amount of time after resection.