The Contagion of Foreign Policy Convergence: Spatiotemporal Dynamics of Chinese Leadership Visits, 1978–2014

Abstract

Abstract Previous research on the sources of foreign policy convergence has focused exclusively on changes at either the dyadic level, between sender and receiver countries, or monadic level of these states. Although such approaches are helpful to understand how states affect foreign policy change in other countries, they generally overlook the third source of foreign policy convergence, that is, the indirect impact of significant events in neighbouring countries. I investigate whether and how leadership visits—a major diplomatic phenomenon—affect foreign policy convergence within and beyond host countries. Specifically, I argue that leadership visits directly facilitate foreign policy convergence in host countries and indirectly produce favourable diffusion effects in their neighbourhood. I develop an original dataset that tracks the visits of high-level officials between China and its foreign counterparts from 1978 to 2014. The results from spatial panel models support my proposed direct and indirect effects whereby Chinese leadership visits are positively associated with foreign policy alignments with China in both host countries and their neighbours.