Geopolitical Kingmakers: South Korea and the Philippines as Linchpins amid the China–US Competition

Abstract

Abstract South Korea and the Philippines hold pivotal geopolitical positions amidst escalating tensions between the USA and China. Both Seoul and Manila find themselves ensnared in the expanding rivalry between these great powers, subjecting them to numerous strategic challenges amid the prevailing regional status quo of instability. Despite their efforts to maintain a delicate balance, often characterized as hedging behavior, the space available for such maneuvering is diminishing, compelling them toward perilous geopolitical alignments. Therefore, this paper seeks to address the following questions: How does the shrinking space to hedge influence the alignment strategies of South Korea and the Philippines? How do their alignment choices impact the geopolitical dynamics of the China–US strategic competition? It argues that as this space contracts, they possess the capability to significantly influence the regional balance of power through their alignment, which we frame as the kingmaker’s role and the power of the weak paradox. Seoul, navigating the complex dynamics of the Korean Peninsula, must carefully weigh its commitments to both Washington and Beijing, particularly in light of ongoing developments with North Korea. Meanwhile, Manila, in the aftermath of the Duterte administration’s alignment oscillations, has sought to establish a clearer strategic direction largely influenced by tensions in the South China Sea. Both are now increasingly tacking hard toward Washington for security assurances and have acknowledged economic security anxieties concerning their links with Beijing. Furthermore, they are placing greater emphasis on upholding the rules-based international order amid growing global uncertainties.