Southeast Asia amid Sino-US Competition: Power Shift and Regional Order Transition

Abstract

Abstract Most observers agree that, for Southeast Asian countries, the prospect of Sino-US competition presents an epic challenge. There is, however, broad disagreement on exactly how great power rivalry would affect the region. This article aims to examine the ongoing debates and discussions and demonstrates that they revolve around four key issues: (1) how the regional balance of power would shift; (2) how Sino-US competition would affect Southeast Asian countries’ strategic choices; (3) what role the Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN) would play in the evolving regional order; and (4) how regional order would evolve. This article argues that certain disagreements may be resolved through rigorous conceptualisation and operationalisation of key variables, such as power and hedging. However, there is profound disagreement over whether China’s economic ascent would continue and whether China can compete with the USA on all fronts. Furthermore, the interplay of systemic and domestic pressure adds uncertainty to these regional countries’ strategic choices, which require further theoretical construction. Most studies agree that ASEAN centrality is likely to diminish due to great power politics and ASEAN’s internal weakness, apparent in a low level of institutionalisation. As to the evolving regional order, however, scholars have offered competing perspectives, ranging from a dual structure to the balance of power, great power concerts, and a hegemonic order dominated either by China or by the USA.