Commodity price uncertainty and international trade

Author:

Bakas Dimitrios12ORCID,Konstantakopoulou Ioanna3,Triantafyllou Athanasios4ORCID

Affiliation:

1. Nottingham Business School, Nottingham Trent University , UK

2. Rimini Centre for Economic Analysis (RCEA) , USA

3. Centre for Planning and Economic Research , Greece

4. IESEG School of Management, Univ. Lille, CNRS, UMR 9221 - LEM - Lille Economie Management , Lille F-59000, France

Abstract

Abstract We empirically investigate the impact of commodity price uncertainty on US and Euro Area (EA) trade flows. Our results indicate that the response of US and EA trade flows to commodity uncertainty shocks is larger, in magnitude and persistence, when compared with the respective impact of commodity supply and demand shocks. Moreover, our analysis shows that a one-standard deviation shock in commodity price volatility has a higher (in magnitude) and more persistent effect on trade when compared with the respective shocks in exchange rates and commodity prices. Finally, an uncertainty shock in various agricultural and metals markets has a similar negative impact on trade flows to that of energy uncertainty shocks.

Publisher

Oxford University Press (OUP)

Subject

Economics and Econometrics,Agricultural and Biological Sciences (miscellaneous)

Reference54 articles.

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4. The impact of uncertainty shocks on the volatility of commodity prices;Bakas;Journal of International Money and Finance,2018

5. Irreversibility, uncertainty, and cyclical investment;Bernanke;Quarterly Journal of Economics,1983

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