Media influences on corn futures pricing

Author:

Zhou Xinquan1ORCID,Bagnarosa Guillaume23,Dowling Michael4ORCID,Dandu Jagadish5

Affiliation:

1. Institute of Economics, School of Social Sciences, Tsinghua University , China

2. Rennes School of Business, France

3. INRAe, IA, UMR SMART , France

4. DCU Business School, Dublin City University , Ireland

5. Zayed University, United Arab Emirates

Abstract

Abstract Understanding agricultural commodity futures is crucial for efficient business operations. This study employs textual machine learning on 290,271 articles (2009–2020) focusing on corn markets, aiming to model the impact of news on corn futures pricing. Our novel approach enables the identification of seven distinct topics within corn news, offering a comprehensive view of the news coverage spectrum. Soybean biofuel news notably influences corn prices, while exports, weather and wheat news significantly impact pricing uncertainty. These insights deepen our understanding of factors shaping corn futures and highlight machine learning’s potential in agricultural economic analysis, enabling more accurate market predictions and policy decisions.

Publisher

Oxford University Press (OUP)

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