Prediction of Suicide Attempts Among Persons with Depression: A Population-Based Case Cohort Study

Abstract

Abstract Studies have highlighted the potential importance of modeling interactions for suicide attempt prediction. This case-cohort study identified risk factors for suicide attempts among persons with depression in Denmark using statistical approaches that do (random forests) or do not model interactions (least absolute shrinkage and selection operator regression [LASSO]). Cases made a non-fatal suicide attempt (n = 6,032) between 1995 and 2015. The comparison subcohort was a 5% random sample of all persons in Denmark on January 1, 1995 (n = 11,963). We used random forests and LASSO for sex-stratified prediction of suicide attempts from demographic variables, psychiatric and somatic diagnoses, and treatments. Poisonings, psychiatric disorders, and medications were important predictors for both sexes. Area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (AUC) values were higher in LASSO models (0.85 [95% CI = 0.84, 0.86] in men; 0.89 [95% CI = 0.88, 0.90] in women) than random forests (0.76 [95% CI = 0.74, 0.78] in men; 0.79 [95% CI = 0.78, 0.81] in women). Automatic detection of interactions via random forests did not result in better model performance than LASSO models that did not model interactions. Due to the complex nature of psychiatric comorbidity and suicide, modeling interactions may not always be the optimal statistical approach to enhancing suicide attempt prediction in high-risk samples.