Increasing melanoma incidence and survival trend shifts with improved melanoma-specific survival between 1990 and 2020 in Sweden

Abstract

Abstract Background Melanoma-specific survival (MSS) is heterogenous between stages and is highly dependent on the T stage for primary localized disease. New systemic therapies for metastatic cutaneous melanoma (CM) have been introduced since 2012 in Sweden. Objectives To analyse the incidence and MSS time trends between 1990 and 2020 in Sweden. Methods Nationwide, population-based and prospectively collected clinico-pathological data on invasive CM from the Swedish Melanoma Registry (SweMR) were analysed for survival trends between 1990 and 2020 using Kaplan–Meier curves and Cox proportional hazard ratios (HRs). Results In total, 77 036 primary invasive CMs were diagnosed in 70 511 patients in Sweden between 1990 and 2020. The 5-year MSS [95% confidence interval (CI)] was 88.9% (88.3–89.4) for 1990–2000, 89.2% (88.7–89.6) for 2001–2010 and 93.0% (92.7–93.9) for 2011–2020. The odds ratios for being diagnosed with nodular melanoma (vs. superficial spreading melanoma) was significantly reduced by 20% (2001–2010) and by 46% (2011–2020) vs. the reference period 1990–2000. Overall, the MSS improved over both diagnostic periods (2001–2010 and 2011–2020) vs. the reference period 1990–2000 among men and women, respectively [HRmen: 2001–2010: 0.89 (95% CI 0.82–0.96) and 2011–2020: 0.62 (95% CI 0.56–0.67); HRwomen: 2001–2010: 0.82 (95% CI 0.74–0.91) and 2011–2020: 0.62 (95% CI 0.56–0.70)]. The risk of death from CM was significantly lower in all age groups for both men and women in the most recent diagnostic period (2011–2020 vs.1990–2000). Conclusions The results emphasize the improved MSS among men and women in Sweden. The MSS improvements, specifically for the period 2011–2020, may be correlated to the introduction of new systemic therapies and are here shown for the first time in detail for Sweden.