A Multitype Birth–Death Model for Bayesian Inference of Lineage-Specific Birth and Death Rates

Abstract

Abstract Heterogeneous populations can lead to important differences in birth and death rates across a phylogeny. Taking this heterogeneity into account is necessary to obtain accurate estimates of the underlying population dynamics. We present a new multitype birth–death model (MTBD) that can estimate lineage-specific birth and death rates. This corresponds to estimating lineage-dependent speciation and extinction rates for species phylogenies, and lineage-dependent transmission and recovery rates for pathogen transmission trees. In contrast with previous models, we do not presume to know the trait driving the rate differences, nor do we prohibit the same rates from appearing in different parts of the phylogeny. Using simulated data sets, we show that the MTBD model can reliably infer the presence of multiple evolutionary regimes, their positions in the tree, and the birth and death rates associated with each. We also present a reanalysis of two empirical data sets and compare the results obtained by MTBD and by the existing software BAMM. We compare two implementations of the model, one exact and one approximate (assuming that no rate changes occur in the extinct parts of the tree), and show that the approximation only slightly affects results. The MTBD model is implemented as a package in the Bayesian inference software BEAST 2 and allows joint inference of the phylogeny and the model parameters.[Birth–death; lineage specific rates, multi-type model.]