Assessment of uncertainties in threshold doses for tissue reactions following acute external radiation exposure

Abstract

Abstract The study aimed to estimate threshold doses and their uncertainties for some human health effects after short-term high dose-rate radiation exposure by quantile technique and the effective dose threshold technique based on distribution functions. The relative uncertainty (U) of the threshold dose was estimated using the error propagation technique. The quantile technique provided statistically significant estimates of threshold doses for acute radiation syndrome onset (0.44 ± 0.12 Gy, U = 143%) and lethality (1.84 ± 0.44 Gy, U = 117%) but relative uncertainties were high. The effective threshold dose technique provided statistically significant and more precise threshold dose estimates for acute radiation syndrome onset (0.73 ± 0.02 Gy, U = 18%) and lethality (6.83 ± 0.08 Gy, U = 36%), as well as agranulocytosis (3.51 ± 0.03 Gy, U = 16%) and vomiting onset in the prodromal period (1.54 ± 0.02 Gy, U = 16%). Threshold doses estimated for the change in the peripheral blood neutrophil and leukocyte counts during the first days after short-term high dose-rate radiation exposure were not statistically significant.