Impact of winter holiday and government responses on mortality in Europe during the first wave of the COVID-19 pandemic

Author:

Björk Jonas12ORCID,Mattisson Kristoffer1,Ahlbom Anders3

Affiliation:

1. Division of Occupational and Environmental Medicine, Lund University, Lund, Sweden

2. Clinical Studies Sweden, Forum South, Skåne University Hospital, Lund, Sweden

3. Institute of Environmental Medicine, Unit of Epidemiology, Karolinska Institutet, Stockholm, Sweden

Abstract

Abstract Background This aggregated population study investigated the impact of the seemingly quasi-randomly assigned school winter holiday in weeks 6–10 (February to early March) on excess mortality in 219 European regions (11 countries) during the COVID-19 pandemic in the spring 2020. A secondary aim was to evaluate the impact of government responses to the early inflow of infected cases. Methods Data on government responses weeks 8–14 were obtained from the Oxford COVID-19 Government Response Tracker. Regional data on total all-cause mortality during weeks 14–23 in 2020 were retrieved from Eurostat and national statistical agencies and compared with the average mortality during same period 2015–2019. Variance-weighted least square regression was used with mortality difference as dependent variable with adjustment for country, population density and age distribution. Results Being a region with winter holiday exclusively in week 9 was in the adjusted analysis associated with 16 weekly excess deaths [95% confidence interval (CI) 13–20] per million inhabitants during weeks 14–23, which corresponds to 38% of the excess mortality in these regions. A more stringent response implemented in week 11, corresponding to 10 additional units on the 0–100 ordinal scale, was associated with 20 fewer weekly deaths (95% CI 18–22) per million inhabitants. Conclusions Winter holiday in week 9 was an amplifying event that contributed importantly to the excess mortality observed in the study regions during the spring 2020. Timely government responses to the resulting early inflow of cases reduced the excess in mortality.

Funder

Swedish Research Council

Publisher

Oxford University Press (OUP)

Subject

Public Health, Environmental and Occupational Health

同舟云学术

1.学者识别学者识别

2.学术分析学术分析

3.人才评估人才评估

"同舟云学术"是以全球学者为主线,采集、加工和组织学术论文而形成的新型学术文献查询和分析系统,可以对全球学者进行文献检索和人才价值评估。用户可以通过关注某些学科领域的顶尖人物而持续追踪该领域的学科进展和研究前沿。经过近期的数据扩容,当前同舟云学术共收录了国内外主流学术期刊6万余种,收集的期刊论文及会议论文总量共计约1.5亿篇,并以每天添加12000余篇中外论文的速度递增。我们也可以为用户提供个性化、定制化的学者数据。欢迎来电咨询!咨询电话:010-8811{复制后删除}0370

www.globalauthorid.com

TOP

Copyright © 2019-2024 北京同舟云网络信息技术有限公司
京公网安备11010802033243号  京ICP备18003416号-3