Association between heat waves and number of deaths for old-age in slovenia, from 2013 to 2017

Abstract

Abstract Background Heat waves are associated with incresed mortalitiy, especially in old-age population. Methods We estimated relative risks for number of deaths, for the observed diagnoses, sex, and area, as well as 95% confidence intervals and excess deaths associated with heat waves occurring in the years from 2013 to 2017, for population 75+ years old. Results Statistically significant were: in 2014: all causes of deaths (RR = 1.27, CI 1.12-1.44); male, all causes of deaths (RR = 1.27, CI 1.04-1.56); female, all causes of deaths (RR = 1.26, CI 1.08-1.48); all, circulatory system diseases (RR = 1.19, CI 1.01-1.43); female, circulatory system diseases (RR = 1.23, CI 1.01-1.51); rural area (RR = 1.28, CI 1.09-1.51); urban area (RR = 1.35, CI 1.11-1.64); and in 2015: all causes of deaths (RR = 1.28, CI 1.15-1.41); male, all causes of deaths (RR = 1.27, CI 1.08-1.5); female, all causes of deaths (RR = 1.27, CI 1.12-1.45); all, circulatory system diseases (RR = 1.27, CI 1.1-1.48); male, circulatory system diseases (RR = 1.38, CI 1.06-1.79); female, circulatory system diseases (RR = 1.23, CI 1.03-1.47); rural area (RR = 1.31, CI 1.16-1.47). No significant association in 2013, 2016 and 2017 appeared. Conclusions Despite increasing heat load in observed years, we did not notice a statistically significant association between heat waves and the number of deaths in the last observed years 2016 and 2017. The results indirectly show that we are on good way with our public health efforts concerning awareness of Slovenian people about the dangers heat waves bring. Key messages Heat waves will become more intense, will last longer and will appear more frequent. We must take care after old age population. Chronic noncommucating diseaes increase and life expectancy also increases, so the burden of deaths during heat waves is expected to increase too.