Breast Cancer burden in Tunisia: situation in 2017 and projections by 2030

Abstract

Abstract Introduction Despite advances in diagnostic and treatment of cancer, burden of this disease is increasing worldwide. Breast Cancer is one of the leading cancers and major causes of death among female worldwide. The aim of this study was to describe the breast cancer burden in Tunisia in terms of disability adjusted life years (DALY) in 2017 and to perform projections by 2030. Methods DALYs for cancer are the sum of years of potential life lost due to premature mortality (Years Life Lost (YLL) and the years lived with disability (YLD). We used epidemiological data (incidence rate, death rate, DALY, YLL and YLD) estimated by the Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation (IHME). Demographic data were provided by the National institute of statistics. The projection of DALYs for breast cancer through 2030 was performed by a Poisson Regression analysis with Age -Period -Cohort (APC) using SPSS software while using IHME estimated data for the period 1990-2017. Results In 2017, breast cancer incidence and mortality rate among females in Tunisia were 50.17/100000 persons years and 14.04/100000 persons years respectively. Breast cancer DALY values were 25145 (438 /100000 persons years). The percentage of YLL in DALYS was 92.4%. Without effective interventions, the number of DALYs due to breast cancer would reach 40071 in 2030 with a standardized rate of 507/100000 persons years (IC 95% = [501/100000 to 514/100000]. The number of YLL predicted will attain 36457 with a standardized rate of 461/100000 persons years. Conclusions The burden of breast cancer among Tunisian women in 2017 is relatively high mainly due to the lack of screening program. There is an urgent need of a strong plan of early detection and appropriate care. Key messages Burden of breast cancer among women in 2017 is high and will rise in 2030. Renforcing screening program is urgent.