Incumbency and Identity: The 2021 Senedd Election

Author:

Larner Jac M1ORCID,Wyn Jones Richard1,Poole Ed Gareth1,Surridge Paula2,Wincott Daniel1

Affiliation:

1. Wales Governance Centre, School of Law and Politics, Cardiff University, Cardiff CF10 3AX, UK

2. School of Sociology, Politics and International Studies, University of Bristol, BS8 1TU, UK

Abstract

Abstract Taking place amid a global pandemic, the 2021 Senedd Election saw Welsh Labour returned as the largest party at the sixth consecutive occasion since the institution’s founding in 1999. Results for opposition parties were mixed: the Conservatives achieved their highest ever vote share but their seat tally fell short of pre-election expectations, and Plaid Cymru again made little progress. Using data from the 2021 Welsh Election Study, we explore the election campaign and results, and offer a first analysis of vote choice. We find that Labour not only benefitted from incumbency advantages drawn from voters’ approval of the Welsh Government’s handling of the pandemic, but through its use of symbols, branding and messaging, the party continues to remain attuned to a national identity position that broadly aligns with that of the electorate as a whole.

Funder

Economic and Research Council

Publisher

Oxford University Press (OUP)

Subject

Law,Sociology and Political Science

Reference34 articles.

1. Wales and the 2019 Election;Awan-Scully;Political Insight,2020

2. The Red and the Green: Patterns of Partisan Choice in Wales;Balsom;British Journal of Political Science,1983

3. The Political Consequences of Welsh Identity;Balsom;Ethnic & Racial Studies,1984

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