Multi-stable bacterial communities exhibit extreme sensitivity to initial conditions

Abstract

ABSTRACT Microbial communities can have dramatically different compositions even among similar environments. This might be due to the existence of multiple alternative stable states, yet there exists little experimental evidence supporting this possibility. Here, we gathered a large collection of absolute population abundances capturing population dynamics in one- to four-strain communities of soil bacteria with a complex life cycle in a feast-or-famine environment. This dataset led to several observations: (i) some pairwise competitions resulted in bistability with a separatrix near a 1:1 initial ratio across a range of population densities; (ii) bistability propagated to multi-stability in multispecies communities; and (iii) replicate microbial communities reached different stable states when starting close to initial conditions separating basins of attraction, indicating finite-sized regions where the dynamics are unpredictable. The generalized Lotka–Volterra equations qualitatively captured most competition outcomes but were unable to quantitatively recapitulate the observed dynamics. This was partly due to complex and diverse growth dynamics in monocultures that ranged from Allee effects to nonmonotonic behaviors. Overall, our results highlight that multi-stability might be generic in multispecies communities and, combined with ecological noise, can lead to unpredictable community assembly, even in simple environments.