Internal validation of gestational age estimation algorithms in health-care databases using pregnancies conceived through fertility procedures

Author:

Chiu Yu-Han1ORCID,Huybrechts Krista F23ORCID,Zhu Yanmin23,Straub Loreen23ORCID,Bateman Brian T45,Logan Roger1,Hernández-Díaz Sonia1

Affiliation:

1. CAUSALab and Department of Epidemiology, Harvard T.H. Chan School of Public Health , Boston, MA 02115 , United States

2. Division of Pharmacoepidemiology and Pharmacoeconomics , Department of Medicine, , Boston, MA 02120 , United States

3. Brigham and Women’s Hospital and Harvard Medical School , Department of Medicine, , Boston, MA 02120 , United States

4. Department of Anesthesiology , Perioperative and Pain Medicine, School of Medicine, , Stanford, CA 94305 , United States

5. Stanford University , Perioperative and Pain Medicine, School of Medicine, , Stanford, CA 94305 , United States

Abstract

Abstract Fertility procedures recorded in health-care databases can be used to estimate the start of pregnancy, which can serve as a reference standard to validate gestational age estimates based on International Classification of Diseases codes. In a cohort of 17 398 US MarketScan pregnancies (2011-2020) in which conception was achieved via fertility procedures, we estimated gestational age at the end of pregnancy using algorithms based on (1) time (days) since the fertility procedure (the reference standard); (2) International Classification of Diseases, Ninth Revision (ICD-9)/International Classification of Diseases, Tenth Revision (ICD-10) (before/after October 2015) codes indicating gestational length recorded at the end of pregnancy (method A); and (3) ICD-10 end-of-pregnancy codes enhanced with Z3A codes denoting specific gestation weeks recorded at prenatal visits (method B). We calculated the proportion of pregnancies with an estimated gestational age falling within 14 days ($\pm$14 days) of the reference standard. Method A accuracy was similar for ICD-9 and ICD-10 codes. After 2015, method B was more accurate than method A: For term births, within–14-day agreement was 90.8% for method A and 98.7% for method B. Corresponding estimates were 70.1% and 95.6% for preterm births; 35.3% and 92.6% for stillbirths; 54.3% and 64.2% for spontaneous abortions; and 16.7% and 84.6% for elective terminations. ICD-10–based algorithms that incorporate Z3A codes improve the accuracy of gestational age estimation in health-care databases, especially for preterm births and non–live births.

Funder

National Institutes of Health

Publisher

Oxford University Press (OUP)

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