Uncertainty Definitions and Their Problems

Abstract

Abstract We are constantly faced with decisions where we are unsure. Although we experience uncertainty daily, we are uncertain about what uncertainty is. In this chapter, the authors critically examine different definitions of uncertainty and different forms of uncertainty from the decision-making, psychological, management, and philosophical literatures. The authors then propose that defining uncertainty as not knowing for sure is more useful than other definitions of uncertainty because it has both intuitive appeal and a long philosophical tradition supporting it. Moreover, this definition of uncertainty merely states that one is uncertain if one does not know for sure, without saying what specifically would (or should) make someone unsure. Therefore, a pluralistic approach can be taken to study uncertainty. Finally, the authors encourage scholars to embrace fallibility as a new way forward when studying uncertainty.