Preparing for the (Non-Existent?) Future of Work

Abstract

Abstract This chapter analyzes how to set up institutions that future-proof our society for a scenario of ever-more-intelligent autonomous machines that substitute for human labor and drive down wages. It lays out three concerns arising from such a scenario and evaluates recent predictions and objections to these concerns. Then it analyzes how to allocate work and income if these concerns start to materialize. As the income produced by autonomous machines rises and the value of labor declines, it is optimal to phase out work, beginning with workers who have low labor productivity and job satisfaction, as they have a comparative advantage in enjoying leisure. This is in stark contrast to welfare systems that force individuals with low labor productivity to work. If there are significant wage declines, avoiding mass misery will require other ways of distributing income than labor markets, whether via sufficiently well-distributed capital ownership or via benefits. Recipients could still engage in work for its own sake if they enjoy work amenities, such as structure, purpose, and meaning. If work gives rise to positive externalities, such as social connections or political stability, or if individuals undervalue the benefits of work because of internalities, then there is a role for public policy to encourage work. However, in the long run, it may be more desirable for society to develop alternative ways of providing these benefits.