Causal Models and Conditional Reasoning

Author:

Oaksford Mike,Chater Nick

Abstract

There are deep intuitions that the meaning of conditional statements relate to probabilistic law-like dependencies. In this chapter it is argued that these intuitions can be captured by representing conditionals in causal Bayes nets (CBNs) and that this conjecture is theoretically productive. This proposal is borne out in a variety of results. First, causal considerations can provide a unified account of abstract and causal conditional reasoning. Second, a recent model (Fernbach & Erb, 2013) can be extended to the explicit causal conditional reasoning paradigm (Byrne, 1989), making some novel predictions on the way. Third, when embedded in the broader cognitive system involved in reasoning, causal model theory can provide a novel explanation for apparent violations of the Markov condition in causal conditional reasoning (Ali et al, 2011). Alternative explanations are also considered (see, Rehder, 2014a) with respect to this evidence. While further work is required, the chapter concludes that the conjecture that conditional reasoning is underpinned by representations and processes similar to CBNs is indeed a productive line of research.

Publisher

Oxford University Press

Cited by 3 articles. 订阅此论文施引文献 订阅此论文施引文献,注册后可以免费订阅5篇论文的施引文献,订阅后可以查看论文全部施引文献

1. Interdisciplinary collaboration in the field of psychology of reasoning;SCT Proceedings in Interdisciplinary Insights and Innovations;2024-05-08

2. Less is more: information needs, information wants, and what makes causal models useful;Cognitive Research: Principles and Implications;2023-08-30

3. Indicative and Counterfactual Conditionals in the Psychology of Reasoning;Palgrave Studies in Pragmatics, Language and Cognition;2023

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