Particle Filters for Markov-Switching Stochastic Volatility Models

Abstract

This chapter proposes an auxiliary particle filter algorithm for inference in regime switching stochastic volatility models in which the regime state is governed by a first-order Markov chain. It proposes an ongoing updated Dirichlet distribution to estimate the transition probabilities of the Markov chain in the auxiliary particle filter. A simulation-based algorithm is presented for the method that demonstrates the ability to estimate a class of models in which the probability that the system state transits from one regime to a different regime is relatively high. The methodology is implemented in order to analyze a real-time series, namely, the foreign exchange rate between the Australian dollar and the South Korean won.