Looking Backward and Forward on Hindsight Bias

Author:

Bernstein Daniel M.,Aßfalg Andre,Kumar Ragav,Ackerman Rakefet

Abstract

The same event that appeared unpredictable in foresight can be judged as predictable in hindsight. Hindsight bias clouds judgments in all areas of life, including legal decisions, medical diagnoses, consumer satisfaction, sporting events, and election outcomes. We discuss three theoretical constructs related to hindsight bias: memory, reconstruction bias, and motivation. Attempts to recall foresight knowledge fail because newly acquired knowledge affects memory either directly or indirectly by biasing attempts to reconstruct foresight knowledge. On a metacognitive level, overconfidence and surprise contribute to hindsight bias. Overconfidence in knowledge increases hindsight bias whereas a well-calibrated confidence reduces hindsight bias. Motivational factors also contribute to hindsight bias by making positive and negative outcomes appear more or less likely, depending on a variety of factors. We review hindsight bias theories and discuss three exciting directions for future research.

Publisher

Oxford University Press

Cited by 11 articles. 订阅此论文施引文献 订阅此论文施引文献,注册后可以免费订阅5篇论文的施引文献,订阅后可以查看论文全部施引文献

1. Memory Errors and Distortion;The Oxford Handbook of Human Memory, Two Volume Pack;2024-07-18

2. Assessing the Evidence for Outcome Bias and Hindsight Bias;Review of Philosophy and Psychology;2023-01-31

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