When to Go? A Conjoint Experiment on Social Networks, Violence, and Forced Migration Decisions in Eastern and Southeastern Turkey

Author:

Turkoglu Oguzhan1ORCID,Weber Sigrid2ORCID

Affiliation:

1. Hertie School , Germany

2. University College London , UK

Abstract

Abstract How do heterogeneous patterns of violence affect people's decision to flee? We provide individual-level evidence on flight decision-making in light of violence with a conjoint experiment in Turkey. The results suggest that intense indiscriminate violence nearby forces individuals into the decision to leave. In contrast to previous studies, we find that the fear of repeated violence plays a more important role in flight decision-making than the attack frequency. The survey experiment reveals that violence committed by the government makes a decision to flee abroad more likely than rebel violence. We find that individuals with support networks abroad are less responsive to patterns of violence, making flight decisions more independently and being generally more inclined to move. Our findings contribute to the growing literature on forced migration with individual-level evidence on the decision-making process underlying flight reactions to violence.

Funder

Irish Research Council

Publisher

Oxford University Press (OUP)

Subject

Political Science and International Relations,Sociology and Political Science

Reference53 articles.

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