Thinking Outside of the Box: Transnational Terrorism in Civil Wars

Abstract

AbstractScholars have written on the extensive risks that transnational terrorism entails for militant groups that perpetrate such attacks. However, despite these risks, transnational terrorism has become an increasingly common feature of civil wars. This raises the question: Why do rebel groups launch terrorist attacks outside of the countries they are fighting civil wars in? I argue that weaker rebel groups are more inclined to turn to such tactics because they are desperate, and as a result, are more willing to make the gamble to signal their resolve, impose costs on their enemies, avoid direct military confrontation with domestic security forces, and generate external support. Using data on the transnational terrorist attack patterns of all rebel group–government dyads present in the Uppsala Conflict Data Program (UCDP) Dyadic Dataset from 1970 to 2013, I find that conventionally weak rebel groups are more likely to rely on transnational terrorism.