Falls prediction using the nursing home minimum dataset

Abstract

Abstract Objective The purpose of the study was to develop and validate a model to predict the risk of experiencing a fall for nursing home residents utilizing data that are electronically available at the more than 15 000 facilities in the United States. Materials and Methods The fall prediction model was built and tested using 2 extracts of data (2011 through 2013 and 2016 through 2018) from the Long-term Care Minimum Dataset (MDS) combined with drug data from 5 skilled nursing facilities. The model was created using a hybrid Classification and Regression Tree (CART)-logistic approach. Results The combined dataset consisted of 3985 residents with mean age of 77 years and 64% female. The model’s area under the ROC curve was 0.668 (95% confidence interval: 0.643–0.693) on the validation subsample of the merged data. Discussion Inspection of the model showed that antidepressant medications have a significant protective association where the resident has a fall history prior to admission, requires assistance to balance while walking, and some functional range of motion impairment in the lower body; even if the patient exhibits behavioral issues, unstable behaviors, and/or are exposed to multiple psychotropic drugs. Conclusion The novel hybrid CART-logit algorithm is an advance over the 22 fall risk assessment tools previously evaluated in the nursing home setting because it has a better performance characteristic for the fall prediction window of ≤90 days and it is the only model designed to use features that are easily obtainable at nearly every facility in the United States.