A Proposed Modified Staging System for Medullary Thyroid Cancer: A SEER Analysis With Multicenter Validation

Abstract

Abstract Background The 8th edition of the American Joint Committee on Cancer (AJCC) staging system for medullary thyroid cancer (MTC) was implemented in 2018. However, its ability to predict prognosis remains controversial. Patients and Methods Patient data were obtained from the Surveillance, Epidemiology, and End Results (SEER) database and multicenter datasets. Overall survival was the primary end-point of the present study. The concordance index (C-index) was used to assess the efficacy of various models to predict prognostic outcomes. Results A total of 1450 MTC patients were selected from the SEER databases and 349 in the multicenter dataset. According to the AJCC staging system, there were no significant survival differences between T4a and T4b categories (P = .299). The T4 category was thus redefined as T4a’ category (≤3.5 cm) and T4b’ category (>3.5 cm) based on the tumor size, which was more powerful for distinguishing the prognosis (P = .003). Further analysis showed that the T category was significantly associated with both lymph node (LN) location and count (P < .001). Therefore, the N category was modified by combining the LN location and count. Finally, the above-mentioned novel T and N categories were adopted to modify the 8th AJCC classification using the recursive partitioning analysis principle, and the modified staging system outperformed the current edition (C-index, 0.811 vs. 0.792). Conclusions The 8th AJCC staging system was improved based on the intrinsic relationship among the T category, LN location, and LN count, which would have a positive impact on the clinical decision-making process and appropriate surveillance.