A Simple Nomogram for Predicting Hospital Mortality of Patients Over 80 Years in ICU: An International Multicenter Retrospective Study

Abstract

AbstractObjectivesThis study aimed to develop and validate an easy-to-use intensive care unit (ICU) illness scoring system to evaluate the in-hospital mortality for very old patients (VOPs, over 80 years old).MethodsWe performed a multicenter retrospective study based on the electronic ICU (eICU) Collaborative Research Database (eICU-CRD), Medical Information Mart for Intensive Care Database (MIMIC-III CareVue and MIMIC-IV), and the Amsterdam University Medical Centers Database (AmsterdamUMCdb). Least Absolute Shrinkage and Selection Operator regression was applied to variables selection. The logistic regression algorithm was used to develop the risk score and a nomogram was further generated to explain the score.ResultsWe analyzed 23 704 VOPs, including 3 726 deaths (10 183 [13.5% mortality] from eICU-CRD [development set], 12 703 [17.2%] from the MIMIC, and 818 [20.8%] from the AmsterdamUMC [external validation sets]). Thirty-four variables were extracted on the first day of ICU admission, and 10 variables were finally chosen including Glasgow Coma Scale, shock index, respiratory rate, partial pressure of carbon dioxide, lactate, mechanical ventilation (yes vs no), oxygen saturation, Charlson Comorbidity Index, blood urea nitrogen, and urine output. The nomogram was developed based on the 10 variables (area under the receiver operating characteristic curve: training of 0.792, testing of 0.788, MIMIC of 0.764, and AmsterdamUMC of 0.808 [external validating]), which consistently outperformed the Sequential Organ Failure Assessment, acute physiology score III, and simplified acute physiology score II.ConclusionsWe developed and externally validated a nomogram for predicting mortality in VOPs based on 10 commonly measured variables on the first day of ICU admission. It could be a useful tool for clinicians to identify potentially high risks of VOPs.