Mysterious Consumption: Preference for Horizontal (vs. Vertical) Uncertainty and the Role of Surprise

Abstract

Abstract Mysterious consumption items represent products that are chosen or purchased without knowing the exact nature of the product(s). In contrast to the widely accepted notion of uncertainty aversion, the present research shows that consumers prefer uncertainty over certainty in the context of mysterious consumption. Across a variety of products (stress balls, ice cream, songs, teas, snacks, hotel rooms, masks, rental cars), participants preferred mysterious consumption items over non-mysterious consumption items of equal expected value. The value of mysterious consumption lies at least in part in the uncertainty about the nature of the outcome among objectively similar outcomes. Specifically, the uncertainty around horizontally differentiated outcomes (i.e., outcomes that differ as a matter of taste) in the case of mysterious consumption focuses consumers on the positive side of uncertainty: the opportunity to be surprised. The preference for uncertainty is not observed when the possible outcomes are vertically differentiated (i.e., outcomes that differ in objective superiority, as is the case in existing demonstrations of uncertainty) or when horizontal uncertainty is reduced to a degree that diminishes the ability to be surprised. The findings reconcile literatures on surprise and uncertainty aversion and help explain mysterious consumption as a substantive phenomenon in the marketplace.