A Potential Influenza Pandemic Modelled in Greek Refugee Camps

Abstract

Abstract Research indicate a significant relationship between the spread of respiratory symptoms and poor housing conditions that arise due to overcrowding — both of which are typically prevalent in refugee camps. The World Health Organization states that the impact of a novel pandemic influenza virus on refugee and displaced populations is expected to be severe. There is, however, insufficient data on the health status of refugees and the spread of common diseases within these camps. In this study, agent-based simulation is employed to address the lack of data and to gain an understanding of the spread and prevalence of a communicable disease within refugee camps. The model aims to explore the spread of a potential influenza pandemic within a Greek refugee camp by modelling personal characteristics of refugees and their interactions with other members. The ability to model, with a reasonable level of accuracy, the spread of a potential influenza pandemic could assist humanitarian aid in combating the problem with evidence-based policy decisions.