Songbird annual productivity declines with increasing soil lead contamination around nests

Abstract

Abstract Songbirds incidentally ingest soil contaminated with lead and several species in the Southeast Missouri Lead Mining District have a negative relationship between soil lead concentration and reproduction. We used an individual-based model (IBM) to simulate nesting processes throughout the breeding season to estimate annual productivity for 5 songbirds in relation to soil-lead concentration. We modeled daily nest survival and number fledged in relation to soil lead and incorporated these relationships into the IBM using a Bayesian approach that fully captured parameter uncertainty and process variation. The proportion of the posterior distribution for the effect of soil lead on daily nest survival was mostly negative for Pipilo erythrophthalmus (Eastern Towhee), Passerina cyanea (Indigo Bunting), Cardinalis cardinalis (Northern Cardinal), Sialia sialis (Eastern Bluebird; f = 0.972, 0.990, 0.741, 0.581, respectively), and slightly positive for Spizella pusilla (Field Sparrow; f = 0.680). The proportion of the posterior distribution for the effect of soil lead on the number fledged from successful nests was mostly negative for S. pusilla, P. erythrophthalmus, and C. cardinalis (f = 0.867, 0.585, 0.508, respectively) and positive for P. cyanea and S. sialis (f = 0.773, 0.744). Simulated annual productivity decreased by 0.04–1.47 young/female/year among species across the range of soil lead concentrations, with the greatest declines for P. erythrophthalmus and P. cyanea. The probability of fledging one or more young changed from 51% to 15% for P. erythrophthalmus, 57% to 23% for P. cyanea, 60% to 48% for C. cardinalis, 94% to 84% for S. sialis, and 57% to 64% for S. pusilla as soil-lead concentration around a nest increased from 20 to 4,000 ppm. Most nest failures were the result of predation; therefore, we suggest lead may have affected birds’ behavior at the nest, or affected nest site quality, which resulted in higher nest predation.