A new 3-D finite-fault model of the Southwest Iceland bookshelf transform zone

Abstract

SUMMARY The largest earthquakes in Iceland occur in the South Iceland seismic zone (SISZ) and the Tjörnes fracture zone in the northeast. With the latter being primarily offshore, the seismic risk in Iceland is highest in the relatively densely populated SISZ. Past probabilistic seismic hazard assessment (PSHA) efforts in Iceland have, however, been based on statistical analyses of various historical earthquake catalogues and limited ground motion models (GMMs), all subject to varying types and degrees of uncertainties. Moreover, they relied on simplistic source descriptions and largely ignored that the unique ‘bookshelf’ strike-slip fault system of the SISZ extends along the plate margins towards the west and over the entire Reykjanes Peninsula Oblique Rift (RPOR) zone. Namely, the bookshelf fault system in Southwest Iceland is twice as long as previously thought and it dominates the strain release of transcurrent plate motion in Southwest Iceland, having potentially important implications for PSHA. In this study, therefore, we propose a new 3-D finite-fault model of the Southwest Iceland bookshelf transform zone. The model has been calibrated on the basis of first principles to the rate of transcurrent plate motions across the transform zone and constrained by the salient features of the fault system geometry as reported in the literature. We model the systematic spatial variability of the seismogenic potential along the zone by its provisional subdivision into six distinct zones. The fault system model allows both deterministic and random fault locations, with each realization completely specified in terms of the maximum expected magnitude of each fault, its maximum dimensions and its long-term slip rate. The variability of the model has been estimated through sensitivity analyses of its key parameters. The total seismic moment rates produced by the fault system model are completely consistent with those reported in the literature. The new model allows the derivation of simple but self-consistent zone-specific Gutenberg–Richter (GR) relationships, and the total long-term seismic activity predicted by the new 3-D fault system model effectively explains the historical earthquake catalogue of the SISZ–RPOR transform zone in Southwest Iceland. We are therefore confident that the model can serve as the foundation for future time-independent physics-based PSHA for Southwest Iceland. Moreover, the consistency and versatility of the model allows its application in conventional approaches to PSHA, which has the potential of bridging the gap between physics-based and conventional approaches to PSHA in Southwest Iceland. Such efforts will improve our understanding of the key elements that affect the hazard, thus improving the reliability of hazard estimates, with important practical implications for the optimized assessment of seismic risk.