What to expect when you are expecting earthquake early warning

Abstract

SUMMARY We present a strategy for earthquake early warning (EEW) alerting that focuses on providing users with a target level of performance for their shaking level of interest (for example, ensuring that users receive warnings for at least 95 per cent of the occurrences of that shaking level). We explore the factors that can affect the accuracy of EEW shaking forecasts including site conditions (which can make shaking more or less varied), the share of earthquake hazard that comes from outlier events, and even the metric of shaking being forecast (with modified Mercalli intensity being the most uncertain quantity to forecast). To provide different locations with the same level of EEW performance, the alert issuance criteria will need to change based on these factors. Finally, we present a hierarchy of information approach with which to communicate EEW system design and performance to the public and other stakeholders, including how frequently alerts will be issued and how accurate those alerts will be.