Epidemiological and clinical features of cutaneous leishmaniasis and its time trend model in a high-endemic focus of disease in the southwest of Iran from 2014 to 2019

Abstract

Abstract Background Cutaneous leishmaniasis (CL) is a tropical infection with a relatively high incidence rate in Iran. The present study aimed to explore the time trend and associated factors of CL in Dezful, in southwest Iran. Methods This case series study was conducted on all CL patients registered from 2014 to 2019. The descriptive analysis of the data was done using SPSS 20 software and the time series model on the number of cases was run through Interactive Time Series Modeling software. Results A total of 5349 leishmaniasis cases were identified in the study area during 2014–2019. The highest incidence rate was 35 840 per 100 000 in 2014. The fitted time series model revealed a decreasing trend with an annual periodic pattern. The mean age of infection was 19.82 y (standard deviation 21.87). The infection was most frequent in the 1–10 y age group (41.7%). Also, females were more prone to leishmaniasis (54.7%). Most lesions were located on the hand (23.1%), face (19.7%), and forearm (17.75%) and 48.5% of patients had only one lesion. Conclusions The results revealed a decreasing trend of leishmaniasis in Dezful. It has been predicted that this infection will reach a minimum rate (300 per 100 000) in the winter of 2021.