A spline-based time-varying reproduction number for modelling epidemiological outbreaks-Reference-Cited by-同舟云学术

A spline-based time-varying reproduction number for modelling epidemiological outbreaks

Published:2023-04-05 Issue:3 Volume:72 Page:688-702
ISSN:0035-9254
Container-title:Journal of the Royal Statistical Society Series C: Applied Statistics
language:en
Short-container-title:

Author:

Pircalabelu Eugen¹

Affiliation:

1. UCLouvain, Institute of Statistics, Biostatistics and Actuarial Sciences , Voie du Roman Pays 20, 1348 Louvain-la-Neuve , Belgium

Abstract

Abstract We develop in this manuscript a method for performing estimation and inference for the reproduction number of an epidemiological outbreak, focusing on the COVID-19 epidemic. The estimator is time-dependent and uses spline modelling to adapt to changes in the outbreak. This is accomplished by directly modelling the series of new infections as a function of time and subsequently using the derivative of the function to define a time-varying reproduction number, which is then used to assess the evolution of the epidemic for several countries.

Publisher

Oxford University Press (OUP)

Subject

Statistics, Probability and Uncertainty,Statistics and Probability

Link

https://academic.oup.com/jrsssc/article-pdf/72/3/688/50598336/qlad027.pdf

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