Viticulture extension in response to global climate change drivers – lessons from the past and future projections
-
Published:2023-06-20
Issue:6
Volume:19
Page:1219-1244
-
ISSN:1814-9332
-
Container-title:Climate of the Past
-
language:en
-
Short-container-title:Clim. Past
Author:
Guiot JoelORCID, Bernigaud Nicolas, Bondeau Alberte, Bouby Laurent, Cramer WolfgangORCID
Abstract
Abstract. The potential areal extent of agricultural crops is sensitive to climate
change and its underlying drivers. To distinguish between the drivers of
past variations in the Mediterranean viticulture extension since Early
Antiquity and improve projections for the future, we propose an original
attribution method based on an emulation of offline coupled climate and
ecosystem models. The emulator connects the potential productivity of
grapevines to global direct and indirect climate drivers, notably orbital
parameters, solar and volcanic activities, demography, and greenhouse gas
concentrations. This approach is particularly useful to place the evolution
of future agrosystems in the context of their past variations. We found that variations in potential area for viticulture during the last 3 millennia in the Mediterranean Basin were mainly due to volcanic activity, while the effects of solar activity and orbital changes were negligible. In the future, as expected, the dominating factor is the increase in greenhouse gases, causing significantly drier conditions and thus major difficulties for viticulture in Spain and North Africa. These constraints will concern significant areas of the southern Mediterranean Basin when global warming exceeds +2 ∘C above preindustrial conditions. Our experiments showed that even intense volcanic activity comparable to that of the Samalas – sometimes considered to be the starting point of the Little Ice Age in the mid-13th century – would not decrease aridity and so not slow down this decline in viticulture extension in the southern margin of the Mediterranean area. This result does not confirm the idea of geoengineering that solar radiation modification (SRM) is an efficient option to limit future global warming.
Publisher
Copernicus GmbH
Subject
Paleontology,Stratigraphy,Global and Planetary Change
Reference91 articles.
1. Allen, M. R., Dube, O. P., Solecki, W., Aragón-Durand, F., Cramer, W.,
Humphreys, S., Kainuma, M., Kala, J., Mahowald, N., Mulugetta, Y., Perez, R., Wairiu, M., and Zickfeld, K.: Framing and Context, in: Global Warming of
1.5 ∘C, in: An IPCC Special Report on the impacts of global warming of 1.5 ∘C above pre-industrial levels and related global greenhouse
gas emission pathways, in the context of strengthening the global response
to the threat of climate change, edited by: Masson-Delmotte, V., Zhai, P.,
Pörtner, H.-O., Roberts, D., Skea, J., Shukla, P. R., Pirani, A., Moufouma-Okia, W., Péan, C., Pidcock, R., Connors, S., Matthews, J. B.
R., Chen, Y., Zhou, X., Gomis, M. I., Lonnoy, E., Maycock, T., Tignor, M.,
and Water, T., Cambridge University Press, Cambridge, UK and New York, NY, USA, 49–92, https://doi.org/10.1017/9781009157940.003, 2018. 2. Amara, R.: Views on futures research methodology, Futures, 23, 645–649,
https://doi.org/10.1016/0016-3287(91)90085-G, 1991. 3. Berger, A. and Loutre, M. F.: Insolation values for the climate of the last
10,000,000 years, Quaternary Sci. Rev., 10, 297–317, 1991. 4. Bernigaud, N., Bondeau, A., and Guiot, J.: Understanding the development of
viticulture in Roman Gaul during and after the Roman climate optimum: The
contribution of spatial analysis and agro-ecosystem modeling, J. Archaeol.
Sci. Rep., 38, 1–9, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jasrep.2021.103099, 2021. 5. Bouby, L., Marinval, P., and Terral, J.-F.: From secondary to speculative
ProductIon? the Protohistory history of viticulture in Southern France, in:
Plants and People: choices and diversity through time, edited by: Chevalier,
A., Marinova, E., and Chocarro, L. P., Oxbow Book, London, Philadelphia, 175–181, https://doi.org/10.2307/1309151, 2014.
|
|