Ensemble flood forecasting considering dominant runoff processes – Part 1: Set-up and application to nested basins (Emme, Switzerland)
-
Published:2019-01-07
Issue:1
Volume:19
Page:19-40
-
ISSN:1684-9981
-
Container-title:Natural Hazards and Earth System Sciences
-
language:en
-
Short-container-title:Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci.
Author:
Antonetti Manuel, Horat Christoph, Sideris Ioannis V., Zappa MassimilianoORCID
Abstract
Abstract. Flash floods evolve rapidly during and after heavy precipitation events
and represent a potential risk for society. To predict the timing and
magnitude of a peak runoff, it is common to couple meteorological and
hydrological models in a forecasting chain. However, hydrological models rely
on strong simplifying assumptions and hence need to be calibrated. This makes
their application difficult in catchments where no direct observation of
runoff is available. To address this gap, a flash-flood forecasting chain is presented based on
(i) a nowcasting product which combines radar and rain gauge rainfall data
(CombiPrecip); (ii) meteorological data from state-of-the-art numerical
weather prediction models (COSMO-1, COSMO-E); (iii) operationally available
soil moisture estimations from the PREVAH hydrological model; and (iv) a
process-based runoff generation module with no need for calibration
(RGM-PRO). This last component uses information on the spatial distribution
of dominant runoff processes from the so-called maps of runoff types, which
can be derived with different mapping approaches with increasing involvement
of expert knowledge. RGM-PRO is event-based and parametrised a priori based
on the results of sprinkling experiments. This prediction chain has been evaluated using data from April to September
2016 in the Emme catchment, a medium-sized flash-flood-prone basin in the
Swiss Prealps. Two novel forecasting chains were set up with two different
maps of runoff types, which allowed sensitivity of the forecast performance
to the mapping approaches to be analysed. Furthermore, special emphasis was
placed on the predictive power of the new forecasting chains in nested
subcatchments when compared with a prediction chain including an original
version of the runoff generation module of PREVAH calibrated for one event. Results showed a low sensitivity of the predictive power to the amount of
expert knowledge included for the mapping approach. The forecasting chain
including a map of runoff types with high involvement of expert knowledge did
not guarantee more skill. In the larger basins of the Emme region,
process-based forecasting chains revealed comparable skill to a prediction
system including a conventional hydrological model. In the small nested
subcatchments, although the process-based forecasting chains outperformed the
original runoff generation module, no forecasting chain showed satisfying
skill in the sense that it could be useful for decision makers. Despite the short period available for evaluation, preliminary outcomes of
this study show that operational flash-flood predictions in ungauged basins
can benefit from the use of information on runoff processes, as no long-term
runoff measurements are needed for calibration.
Publisher
Copernicus GmbH
Subject
General Earth and Planetary Sciences
Reference76 articles.
1. Addor, N., Jaun, S., Fundel, F., and Zappa, M.: An operational hydrological
ensemble prediction system for the city of Zurich (Switzerland): skill, case
studies and scenarios, Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 15, 2327–2347,
https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-15-2327-2011, 2011. a, b, c, d, e, f, g 2. Alfieri, L., Velasco, D., and Thielen, J.: Flash flood detection through a
multi-stage probabilistic warning system for heavy precipitation events, Adv.
Geosci., 29, 69–75, https://doi.org/10.5194/adgeo-29-69-2011, 2011. a 3. Andres, N., Badoux, A., and Hegg, C.: Unwetterschäden in der Schweiz im
Jahre 2014, Wasser Energie Luft, 107, 47–54, 2015. a 4. Antonetti, M., Buss, R., Scherrer, S., Margreth, M., and Zappa, M.: Mapping
dominant runoff processes: an evaluation of different approaches using
similarity measures and synthetic runoff simulations, Hydrol. Earth Syst.
Sci., 20, 2929–2945, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-20-2929-2016, 2016a. a, b, c, d, e, f 5. Antonetti, M., Scherrer, S., Kienzler, P., Margreth, M., and Zappa, M.:
Überprüfung von einem prozessnahen Abflussbildungsmodul auf der Hangskale
und für klein- und mesoskalige Gebiete, Forum für Hydrologie und
Wasserbewirtschaftung, available at:
ftp://ftp.wsl.ch/pub/antonetti/Prozessbasierte_Niederschlags-Abfluss-Modellierung/Anhang_J_Antonetti_etal_ForumHyWa_36.16.pdf,
last access: 18 December 2018, 2016b. a
Cited by
19 articles.
订阅此论文施引文献
订阅此论文施引文献,注册后可以免费订阅5篇论文的施引文献,订阅后可以查看论文全部施引文献
|
|