Influence of the El Niño–Southern Oscillation on entry stratospheric water vapor in coupled chemistry–ocean CCMI and CMIP6 models
-
Published:2021-03-11
Issue:5
Volume:21
Page:3725-3740
-
ISSN:1680-7324
-
Container-title:Atmospheric Chemistry and Physics
-
language:en
-
Short-container-title:Atmos. Chem. Phys.
Author:
Garfinkel Chaim I.ORCID, Harari Ohad, Ziskin Ziv ShlomiORCID, Rao JianORCID, Morgenstern OlafORCID, Zeng GuangORCID, Tilmes SimoneORCID, Kinnison Douglas, O'Connor Fiona M., Butchart Neal, Deushi MakotoORCID, Jöckel PatrickORCID, Pozzer AndreaORCID, Davis SeanORCID
Abstract
Abstract. The connection between the dominant mode of interannual variability in the tropical troposphere, the El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO), and the entry of stratospheric water vapor is analyzed in a set of model simulations archived for the Chemistry-Climate Model Initiative (CCMI) project and for Phase 6 of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project. While the models agree on the temperature response to ENSO in the tropical troposphere and lower stratosphere, and all models and observations also agree on the zonal structure of the temperature response in the tropical tropopause layer, the only aspect of the entry water vapor response with consensus in both models and observations is that La Niña leads to moistening in winter relative to neutral ENSO. For El Niño and for other seasons, there are significant differences among the models. For example, some models find that the enhanced water vapor for La Niña in the winter of the event reverses in spring and summer, some models find that this moistening persists, and some show a nonlinear response, with both El Niño and La Niña leading to enhanced water vapor in both winter, spring, and summer. A moistening in the spring following El Niño events, the signal focused on in much previous work, is simulated by only half of the models. Focusing on Central Pacific ENSO vs. East Pacific ENSO, or temperatures in the mid-troposphere compared with temperatures near the surface, does not narrow the inter-model discrepancies. Despite this diversity in response, the temperature response near the cold point can explain the response of water vapor when each model is considered separately. While the observational record is too short to fully constrain the response to ENSO, it is clear that most models suffer from biases in the magnitude of the interannual variability of entry water vapor. This bias could be due to biased cold-point temperatures in some models, but others appear to be missing forcing processes that contribute to observed variability near the cold point.
Funder
H2020 European Research Council
Publisher
Copernicus GmbH
Subject
Atmospheric Science
Reference79 articles.
1. Avery, M. A., Davis, S. M., Rosenlof, K. H., Ye, H., and Dessler, A.: Large
anomalies in lower stratospheric water vapor and ice during the 2015–2016 El Nino, Nat. Geosci., 10, 405–409, https://doi.org/10.1038/ngeo2961, 2017. a 2. Banerjee, A., Chiodo, G., Previdi, M., Ponater, M., Conley, A. J., and Polvani, L. M.: Stratospheric water vapor: an important climate feedback, Clim. Dynam., 53, 1697–1710, 2019. a 3. Bonazzola, M. and Haynes, P.: A trajectory-based study of the tropical
tropopause region, J. Geophys. Res.-Atmos., 109, D20112, https://doi.org/10.1029/2003JD004356, 2004. a 4. Brinkop, S., Dameris, M., Jöckel, P., Garny, H., Lossow, S., and Stiller, G.: The millennium water vapour drop in chemistry–climate model simulations, Atmos. Chem. Phys., 16, 8125–8140, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-16-8125-2016, 2016. a, b, c 5. Calvo, N., Garcia, R., Randel, W., and Marsh, D.: Dynamical mechanism for the
increase in tropical upwelling in the lowermost tropical stratosphere during warm ENSO events, J. Atmos. Sci., 67, 2331–2340, 2010. a, b, c
Cited by
9 articles.
订阅此论文施引文献
订阅此论文施引文献,注册后可以免费订阅5篇论文的施引文献,订阅后可以查看论文全部施引文献
|
|