A new El Niño-Southern Oscillation forecasting tool based on Southern Oscillation Index

Abstract

Abstract. An exploration of the temporal evolution of the El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO) during January 1876–November 2011 by means of a new time domain called natural time reveals that the major ENSO events provide precursory signals that are maximized in a time window of almost two years. This finding improves the accuracy of the short-term prediction models of the ENSO extreme events, preventing thus from its disastrous impacts in advance.