A COMPARISON BETWEEN THREE CONDITIONING FACTORS DATASET FOR LANDSLIDE PREDICTION IN THE SAJADROOD CATCHMENT OF IRAN

Abstract

Abstract. This study investigates the effectiveness of three datasets for the prediction of landslides in the Sajadrood catchment (Babol County, Mazandaran Province, Iran). The three datasets (D1, D2 and D3) are constructed based on fourteen conditioning factors (CFs) obtained from Digital Elevation Model (DEM) derivatives, topography maps, land use maps and geological maps. Precisely, D1 consists of all 14 CFs namely altitude, slope, aspect, topographic wetness index (TWI), terrain roughness index (TRI), distance to fault, distance to stream, distance to road, total curvature, profile curvatures, plan curvature, land use, steam power index (SPI) and geology. D2, on the other hand, is a subset of D1, consisting of eight CFs. This reduction was achieved by exploiting the Variance Inflation Factor, Gini Importance Indices and Chi-Square factor optimization methods. Dataset D3 includes only selected factors derived from the DEM. Three supervised classification algorithms were trained for landslide prediction namely the Support Vector Machine (SVM), Logistic Regression (LR), and Artificial Neural Network (ANN). Experimental results indicate that D2 performed the best for landslide prediction with the SVM producing the best overall accuracy at 82.81%, followed by LR (81.71%) and ANN (80.18%). Extensive investigations on the results of factor optimization analysis indicate that the CFs distance to road, altitude, and geology were significant contributors to the prediction results. Land use map, slope, total-, plan-, and profile curvature and TRI, on the other hand, were deemed redundant. The analysis also revealed that sole reliance on Gini Indices could lead to inefficient optimization.