Wintertime direct radiative effects due to black carbon (BC) over the Indo-Gangetic Plain as modelled with new BC emission inventories in CHIMERE

Abstract

Abstract. To reduce the uncertainty in climatic impacts induced by black carbon (BC) from global and regional aerosol–climate model simulations, it is a foremost requirement to improve the prediction of modelled BC distribution, specifically over the regions where the atmosphere is loaded with a large amount of BC, e.g. the Indo-Gangetic Plain (IGP) in the Indian subcontinent. Here we examine the wintertime direct radiative perturbation due to BC with an efficiently modelled BC distribution over the IGP in a high-resolution (0.1∘ × 0.1∘) chemical transport model, CHIMERE, implementing new BC emission inventories. The model efficiency in simulating the observed BC distribution was assessed by executing five simulations: Constrained and bottomup (bottomup includes Smog, Cmip, Edgar, and Pku). These simulations respectively implement the recently estimated India-based observationally constrained BC emissions (Constrainedemiss) and the latest bottom-up BC emissions (India-based: Smog-India; global: Coupled Model Intercomparison Project phase 6 – CMIP6, Emission Database for Global Atmospheric Research-V4 – EDGAR-V4, and Peking University BC Inventory – PKU). The mean BC emission flux from the five BC emission inventory databases was found to be considerably high (450–1000 kg km−2 yr−1) over most of the IGP, with this being the highest (> 2500 kg km−2 yr−1) over megacities (Kolkata and Delhi). A low estimated value of the normalised mean bias (NMB) and root mean square error (RMSE) from the Constrained estimated BC concentration (NMB: < 17 %) and aerosol optical depth due to BC (BC-AOD) (NMB: 11 %) indicated that simulations with Constrainedemiss BC emissions in CHIMERE could simulate the distribution of BC pollution over the IGP more efficiently than with bottom-up emissions. The high BC pollution covering the IGP region comprised a wintertime all-day (daytime) mean BC concentration and BC-AOD respectively in the range 14–25 µg m−3 (6–8 µg m−3) and 0.04–0.08 from the Constrained simulation. The simulated BC concentration and BC-AOD were inferred to be primarily sensitive to the change in BC emission strength over most of the IGP (including the megacity of Kolkata), but also to the transport of BC aerosols over megacity Delhi. Five main hotspot locations were identified in and around Delhi (northern IGP), Prayagraj–Allahabad–Varanasi (central IGP), Patna–Palamu (mideastern IGP), and Kolkata (eastern IGP). The wintertime direct radiative perturbation due to BC aerosols from the Constrained simulation estimated the atmospheric radiative warming (+30 to +50 W m−2) to be about 50 %–70 % larger than the surface cooling. A widespread enhancement in atmospheric radiative warming due to BC by 2–3 times and a reduction in surface cooling by 10 %–20 %, with net warming at the top of the atmosphere (TOA) of 10–15 W m−2, were noticed compared to the atmosphere without BC, for which a net cooling at the TOA was exhibited. These perturbations were the strongest around megacities (Kolkata and Delhi), extended to the eastern coast, and were inferred to be 30 %–50% lower from the bottomup than the Constrained simulation.