Recent trends in the frequency and duration of global floods
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Published:2018-06-08
Issue:2
Volume:9
Page:757-783
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ISSN:2190-4987
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Container-title:Earth System Dynamics
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language:en
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Short-container-title:Earth Syst. Dynam.
Author:
Najibi NasserORCID, Devineni Naresh
Abstract
Abstract. Frequency and duration of floods are analyzed using the global flood database of the Dartmouth Flood
Observatory (DFO) to explore evidence
of trends during 1985–2015 at global and latitudinal scales. Three classes
of flood duration (i.e., short: 1–7, moderate: 8–20, and long: 21 days and
above) are also considered for this analysis. The nonparametric Mann–Kendall
trend analysis is used to evaluate three hypotheses addressing potential
monotonic trends in the frequency of flood, moments of duration, and
frequency of specific flood duration types. We also evaluated
if trends could be related to large-scale atmospheric teleconnections using a
generalized linear model framework. Results show that flood frequency and
the tails of the flood duration (long duration) have increased at both the
global and the latitudinal scales. In the tropics, floods have increased
4-fold since the 2000s. This increase is 2.5-fold in the north
midlatitudes. However, much of the trend in frequency and duration of the
floods can be placed within the long-term climate variability context since
the
Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation, North Atlantic Oscillation, and Pacific
Decadal Oscillation were the main atmospheric teleconnections explaining this
trend. There is no monotonic trend in the frequency of short-duration floods
across all the global and latitudinal scales. There is a significant
increasing trend in the annual median of flood durations globally and each
latitudinal belt, and this trend is not related to these teleconnections.
While the DFO data come with a certain level of epistemic uncertainty due to
imprecision in the estimation of floods, overall, the analysis provides
insights for understanding the frequency and persistence in hydrologic
extremes and how they relate to changes in the climate, organization of
global and local dynamical systems, and country-scale socioeconomic factors.
Publisher
Copernicus GmbH
Subject
General Earth and Planetary Sciences
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