Land subsidence modelling for decision making on groundwater abstraction under emergency situation

Abstract

Abstract. This study presents an inversion scheme with uncertainty analysis for a land subsidence modelling by a Monte Carlo filter in order to contribute to the decision-making on the groundwater abstraction. For real time prediction and uncertainty analysis under the limited computational resources and available information in emergency situations, one dimensional vertical land subsidence simulation was adopted for the forward modelling and the null-space Monte Carlo method was applied for the effective resampling. The proposed scheme was tested with the existing land subsidence monitoring data in Tokyo lowland, Japan. The results demonstrated that the prediction uncertainty converges and the prediction accuracy improves as the observed data increased with time. The computational time was also confirmed to be acceptable range for a real time execution with a laptop.