Evaluation of climate change impacts on urban flooding using high-resolution rainfall data

Abstract

Abstract. Evaluation of the effects of climate change on urban river flow has traditionally depended on design rainfall data due to the scarcity of other data sources. However, high-resolution precipitation data, both temporally and spatially, have become accessible from regional climate models. Despite this availability, few studies have tapped into such high-resolution data to analyze urban river flow systems. This study incorporates an event-based storm runoff and inundation simulation with data from a regional climate model. This model offers a spatial resolution of 5 km and a temporal resolution of 10 min for both current and projected future climate scenarios. Rainfall analysis reveals that the 20-year probability of an hourly rainfall of 75 mm, specific to Tokyo, decreases to around 13 years for the period 2016–2035 and further to approximately 8 years for 2076–2095. This trend indicates a growing frequency of heavy rainfall events. Moreover, flood discharge analysis shows an increased downstream flow during such rainfall events if reservoir capacities remain unchanged. Flood risk assessment underscores a significant threat: areas inundated to depths of 25 cm or more may increase by 1.25 times for 2016–2035 and by 1.55 times for the period 2076–2095 when compared to current conditions.