Vulnerability of bridges to scour: insights from an international expert elicitation workshop
-
Published:2017-08-11
Issue:8
Volume:17
Page:1393-1409
-
ISSN:1684-9981
-
Container-title:Natural Hazards and Earth System Sciences
-
language:en
-
Short-container-title:Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci.
Author:
Lamb RobORCID, Aspinall WillyORCID, Odbert HenryORCID, Wagener ThorstenORCID
Abstract
Abstract. Scour (localised erosion) during flood events is one of the most significant threats to bridges over rivers and estuaries, and has been the cause of numerous bridge failures, with damaging consequences. Mitigation of the risk of bridges being damaged by scour is therefore important to many infrastructure owners, and is supported by industry guidance. Even after mitigation, some residual risk remains, though its extent is difficult to quantify because of the uncertainties inherent in the prediction of scour and the assessment of the scour risk. This paper summarises findings from an international expert workshop on bridge scour risk assessment that explores uncertainties about the vulnerability of bridges to scour. Two specialised structured elicitation methods were applied to explore the factors that experts in the field consider important when assessing scour risk and to derive pooled expert judgements of bridge failure probabilities that are conditional on a range of assumed scenarios describing flood event severity, bridge and watercourse types and risk mitigation protocols. The experts' judgements broadly align with industry good practice, but indicate significant uncertainty about quantitative estimates of bridge failure probabilities, reflecting the difficulty in assessing the residual risk of failure. The data and findings presented here could provide a useful context for the development of generic scour fragility models and their associated uncertainties.
Funder
Natural Environment Research Council
Publisher
Copernicus GmbH
Subject
General Earth and Planetary Sciences
Reference41 articles.
1. Arneson, L. A., Zevenbergen, L. W., Lagasse, P. F., and Clopper, P. E.: Evaluating Scour at Bridges, 5th Edn., Federal Highway Administration Hydraulic Engineering Circular No. 18, Publication No. FHWA-HIF-12-003, US Department of Transportation, Washington, D.C., 340 pp., 2012. 2. Aspinall, W. P. and Cooke, R. M.: Expert Elicitation and Judgement, in: Risk and Uncertainty Assessment in Natural Hazards, chap. 4, edited by: Rougier, J. C., Sparks, R. S. J., and Hill, L., Cambridge University Press, Cambridge, 64–99, 2013. 3. Aspinall, W. P., Cooke, R. M., Havelaar, A. H., Hoffmann, S., and Hald, T.: Evaluation of a Performance-Based Expert Elicitation: WHO Global Attribution of Foodborne Diseases, PLoS ONE, 11, e0149817, https://doi.org/10.1371/journal.pone.0149817, 2016. 4. Bamber, J. and Aspinall, W. P.: An expert judgement assessment of future sea level rise from the ice sheets, Nat. Clim. Change, 3, 424–427, https://doi.org/10.1038/nclimate1778, 2013. 5. Coleman, S. E., Lauchlan, C. S., and Melville, B. W.: Clear-water scour development at bridge abutments, J. Hydraul. Res., 41, 521–531, https://doi.org/10.1080/00221680309499997, 2003.
Cited by
41 articles.
订阅此论文施引文献
订阅此论文施引文献,注册后可以免费订阅5篇论文的施引文献,订阅后可以查看论文全部施引文献
|
|