Uncertainties in isoprene photochemistry and emissions: implications for the oxidative capacity of past and present atmospheres and for trends in climate forcing agents

Abstract

Abstract. Current understanding of the factors controlling biogenic isoprene emissions and of the fate of isoprene oxidation products in the atmosphere has been evolving rapidly. We use a climate-biosphere-chemistry modeling framework to evaluate the sensitivity of estimates of the tropospheric oxidative capacity to uncertainties in isoprene emissions and photochemistry. Our work focuses on trends across two time horizons: from the Last Glacial Maximum (LGM, 21 000 years BP) to the preindustrial (1770s); and from the preindustrial to the present day (1990s). We find that different oxidants have different sensitivities to the uncertainties tested in this study, with OH being the most sensitive: changes in the global mean OH levels for the LGM-to-preindustrial transition range between −29 and +7%, and those for the preindustrial-to-present day transition range between −8 and +17%, across our simulations. Our results suggest that the observed glacial-interglacial variability in atmospheric methane concentrations is predominantly driven by changes in methane sources as opposed to changes in OH, the primary methane sink. However, the magnitudes of change are subject to uncertainties in the past isoprene global burdens, as are estimates of the change in the global burden of secondary organic aerosol (SOA) relative to the preindustrial. We show that the linear relationship between tropospheric mean OH and tropospheric mean ozone photolysis rates, water vapor, and total emissions of NOx and reactive carbon – first reported in Murray et al. (2014) – does not hold across all periods with the new isoprene photochemistry mechanism. Our results demonstrate that inadequacies in our understanding of present-day OH and its controlling factors must be addressed in order to improve model estimates of the oxidative capacity of past and present atmospheres.