Evaluation of a unique approach to high-resolution climate modeling using the Model for Prediction Across Scales – Atmosphere (MPAS-A) version 5.1
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Published:2019-08-26
Issue:8
Volume:12
Page:3725-3743
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ISSN:1991-9603
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Container-title:Geoscientific Model Development
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language:en
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Short-container-title:Geosci. Model Dev.
Author:
Michaelis Allison C.ORCID, Lackmann Gary M.ORCID, Robinson Walter A.ORCID
Abstract
Abstract. We present multi-seasonal simulations representative of
present-day and future environments using the global Model for Prediction
Across Scales – Atmosphere (MPAS-A) version 5.1 with high resolution (15 km)
throughout the Northern Hemisphere. We select 10 simulation years with
varying phases of El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO) and integrate each
for 14.5 months. We use analyzed sea surface temperature (SST) patterns for
present-day simulations. For the future climate simulations, we alter
present-day SSTs by applying monthly-averaged temperature changes derived
from a 20-member ensemble of Coupled Model Intercomparison Project phase 5
(CMIP5) general circulation models (GCMs) following the Representative
Concentration Pathway (RCP) 8.5 emissions scenario. Daily sea ice fields,
obtained from the monthly-averaged CMIP5 ensemble mean sea ice, are used for
present-day and future simulations. The present-day simulations provide a
reasonable reproduction of large-scale atmospheric features in the Northern
Hemisphere such as the wintertime midlatitude storm tracks,
upper-tropospheric jets, and maritime sea-level pressure features as well as
annual precipitation patterns across the tropics. The simulations also
adequately represent tropical cyclone (TC) characteristics such as strength,
spatial distribution, and seasonal cycles for most Northern Hemisphere
basins. These results demonstrate the applicability of these model
simulations for future studies examining climate change effects on various
Northern Hemisphere phenomena, and, more generally, the utility of MPAS-A
for studying climate change at spatial scales generally unachievable in
GCMs.
Funder
Division of Atmospheric and Geospace Sciences
Publisher
Copernicus GmbH
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