Surging of a Hudson Strait-scale ice stream: subglacial hydrology matters but the process details mostly do not

Abstract

Abstract. While subglacial hydrology is known to play a role in glacial dynamics on sub-annual to decadal scales, it remains unclear whether subglacial hydrology plays a critical role in ice sheet evolution on centennial or longer timescales. Furthermore, several drainage systems have been inferred, but it is unclear which is most applicable at the continental/glacial scale. More fundamentally, it is even unclear if the structural choice of subglacial hydrology truly matters for this context. Here we compare the contribution to the surge behaviour of an idealized Hudson Strait-like ice stream from three subglacial hydrology systems. We use the newly updated BAsal Hydrology Model – BrAHMs2.0 – and provide model verification tests. BrAHMs2.0 incorporates two process-based representations of inefficient drainage dominant in the literature (linked cavity and poro-elastic) and a non-mass-conserving zero-dimensional form (herein termed leaky bucket) coupled to an ice sheet systems model (the Glacial Systems Model, GSM). The linked-cavity and poro-elastic configurations include an efficient drainage scheme while the leaky bucket does not. All three systems have a positive feedback on ice velocity, whereby faster basal velocities increase melt supply. The poro-elastic and leaky-bucket systems have diagnostic effective pressure relationships – only the linked-cavity system has an additional negative feedback, whereby faster basal ice velocities increase the dynamical effective pressure due to higher cavity opening rates. We examine the contribution of mass transport, efficient drainage, and the linked-cavity negative feedback to surging. We also assess the likely bounds on poorly constrained subglacial hydrology parameters and adopt an ensemble approach to study their impact and interactions within those bounds. We find that subglacial hydrology is an important system inductance for realistic ice stream surging but that the three formulations all exhibit similar surge behaviour within parametric uncertainties. Even a detail as fundamental as mass-conserving transport of subglacial water is not necessary for simulating a full range of surge frequency and amplitude. However, one difference is apparent: the combined positive and negative feedbacks of the linked-cavity system yield longer duration surges and a broader range of effective pressures than its poro-elastic and leaky-bucket counterparts.