Zonal variability of methane trends derived from satellite data

Abstract

Abstract. The Tropospheric Monitoring Instrument (TROPOMI) on board the Sentinel-5 Precursor (S5P) satellite is part of the latest generation of trace gas monitoring satellites and provides a new level of spatio-temporal information with daily global coverage, which enables the calculation of daily globally averaged CH4 concentrations. To investigate changes in atmospheric methane, the background CH4 level (i.e. the CH4 concentration without seasonal and short-term variations) has to be determined. CH4 growth rates vary in a complex manner and high-latitude zonal averages may have gaps in the time series, and thus simple fitting methods do not produce reliable results. In this paper we present an approach based on fitting an ensemble of dynamic linear models (DLMs) to TROPOMI data, from which the best model is chosen with the help of cross-validation to prevent overfitting. This method is computationally fast and is not dependent on additional inputs, allowing for fast and continuous analysis of the most recent time series data. We present results of global annual methane increases (AMIs) for the first 4.5 years of S5P/TROPOMI data, which show good agreement with AMIs from other sources. Additionally, we investigated what information can be derived from zonal bands. Due to the fast meridional mixing within hemispheres, we use zonal growth rates instead of AMIs, since they provide a higher temporal resolution. Clear differences can be observed between Northern Hemisphere and Southern Hemisphere growth rates, especially during 2019 and 2022. The growth rates show similar patterns within the hemispheres and show no short-term variations during the years, indicating that air masses within a hemisphere are well-mixed during a year. Additionally, the growth rates derived from S5P/TROPOMI data are largely consistent with growth rates derived from Copernicus Atmospheric Monitoring Service (CAMS) global-inversion-optimized (CAMS/INV) data, which use surface observations. In 2019 a reduction in growth rates can be observed for the Southern Hemisphere, while growth rates in the Northern Hemisphere stay stable or increase. During 2020 a strong increase in Southern Hemisphere growth rates can be observed, which is in accordance with recently reported increases in Southern Hemisphere wetland emissions. In 2022 the reduction in the global AMI can be attributed to decreased growth rates in the Northern Hemisphere, while growth rates in the Southern Hemisphere remain high. Investigations of fluxes from CAMS/INV data support these observations and suggest that the Northern Hemisphere decrease is mainly due to the decrease in anthropogenic fluxes, while in the Southern Hemisphere, wetland fluxes continued to rise. While the continued increase in Southern Hemisphere wetland fluxes agrees with existing studies about the causes of observed methane trends, the difference between Northern Hemisphere and Southern Hemisphere methane increases in 2022 has not been discussed before and calls for further research.